Obama's Approval Rating at New Low in Most Recent Quarter

His favorable rating and re-elect figures are also at new lows

by Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama averaged 44.7% job approval during the seventh quarter of his presidency. His average approval rating has declined each quarter since he took office, falling by more than two percentage points in the most recent quarter to establish a new low.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking surveys conducted from July 20-Oct. 19, including interviews with more than 90,000 Americans. The seventh quarter included Obama's new low three-day average approval rating of 41% in mid-August. His approval rating has recovered somewhat since then, with his latest three-day average at 46% for Oct. 17-19 interviewing.

Obama's seventh-quarter average ranks on the low end of comparable averages among the nine presidents since Eisenhower, although it is similar to that of several of the more recently elected presidents, including Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton.

Obama's decreased popularity is also evident in his favorable rating, updated in an Oct. 14-17 Gallup poll. For the first time, more Americans view the president unfavorably (50%) than favorably (47%), and his favorable rating is the lowest of his presidency.

His all-time low favorable rating of 42% came in Gallup's initial measurement of Obama in December 2006, at which time 47% did not know enough about him to give an opinion and 11% viewed him unfavorably. As he became more well-known over the course of the 2008 presidential campaign his favorable rating gradually rose and hit a high of 78% in January 2009 just prior to his taking office. Since his inauguration, positive opinions of him have declined by 31 points.

The Oct. 14-17 Gallup poll also finds that, at this point in his presidency, 39% of Americans believe Obama deserves re-election and 54% say he does not. Earlier this year, between 46% and 48% of Americans said Obama should be re-elected.

The current results for Obama are remarkably similar to what Gallup measured for Clinton in October 1994, at which time 38% of Americans thought he was worthy of a second term as president and 57% disagreed. That was just before Clinton's party lost its congressional majority in the 1994 elections, but two years later voters re-elected Clinton by a comfortable margin.

By comparison, in September 2002, 62% of Americans thought George W. Bush deserved re-election. Two years after his party's strong showing in the 2002 midterms, Bush won a narrow victory over John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election.

Implications

With the midterm elections less than two weeks away, Obama's diminished public support means the Democratic Party is vulnerable to heavy losses in Congress. The president's party has lost an average of 36 U.S. House seats when his approval rating is below 50%.

However, both Clinton and Reagan were in similar poor standing at this point in their presidencies, and both recovered in time to win second terms as president.

Explore Obama's approval ratings in depth and compare them with those of past presidents in the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center.